![]() However, this logic of 'blocking the extreme right at all costs' wouldn't work so effectively today. They encouraged the electorate to support instead Le Pen's mainstream rival, incumbent President Jacques Chirac, to prevent the Front National (a predecessor of the Rassemblement National) from winning the Presidency. In 2002, when Marine Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, unexpectedly qualified for the second round of that year’s presidential election, the leaders of almost all other parties united against him. Polls show that nearly 80% of Zemmour's current supporters would vote for Le Pen in the second round. At the same time, she remains a credible choice for people concerned about immigration and security, the main themes of Zemmour's campaign. This has been the main preoccupation of voters throughout the campaign. Le Pen has focused her campaign on socioeconomic themes, in particular on 'purchasing power'. At the same time, he makes Le Pen look less extreme. Zemmour's radical language, along with his background as a non-professional politician, have attracted many who might otherwise have not bothered voting. Zemmour has been the great surprise of this campaign at one point, there was a real possibility he might reach the second round. With the growth of the extreme right, Zemmour supporters constitute a large potential reservoir of votes for Le Pen. Yet a renewed Macron-Le Pen duel is not likely to be a mere repeat of 2017. Many Zemmour supporters (and some Pécresse supporters, too) would rather cast a vote for Le Pen than face a second round between Macron and Mélenchon. ![]() This tendency is likely to increase as Mélenchon rises in the polls. Le Pen has probably attracted many who would otherwise have voted for Zemmour, whose numbers have dropped considerably. Strategic voting has likely contributed to the improvement in poll numbers for Le Pen and Mélenchon over the past 10–14 days. Rather than vote for their preferred candidate, voters seem inclined to settle for the 'least worst' option, if that candidate looks likelier to win. Strategic voting now seems to be taking its place. The Ukraine effect, however, is beginning to fade. All three have, in the recent past, expressed positive views of Vladimir Putin. This had a strong positive effect on Macron's polling figures, and damaged support in the polls for Le Pen, Mélenchon, and Zemmour. Macron has been able to cast himself as a 'war President', rallying support for Ukraine while at the same time engaging in peace diplomacy. The invasion of Ukraine initially appeared to bolster Macron’s chances of an easy victory. Second round voting intentions, at 4 April 2022 The 'Ukraine effect' and strategic voting A Macron victory, although still the more likely outcome, is no longer a foregone conclusion. The gap between the two candidates has narrowed significantly. But the situation that has emerged after a six-month campaign is quite different. The implication, supported by the polls, was that the French President would again defeat the Rassemblement National candidate with ease. Last autumn, many considered a repeat of the 2017 Macron-Le Pen duel in the second round the most likely scenario. French presidential election poll, 4 April 2022 They have little chance of qualifying for the second round. Even those once regarded as possible contenders, in particular Éric Zemmour (Reconquête) and Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains), trail at less than 10%. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron (La République en Marche) continues to lead the polls with 26.5% of the vote, followed by Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National) at 23% and with Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise) in third place at 17%.Īll the other candidates look to be out of the race. The first round of the French presidential elections is only a few days away. The race with Marine Le Pen now looks more competitive than ever, says Giovanni Capoccia A second term of office for Emmanuel Macron remains the most probable outcome of the French presidential election, but it is no longer a foregone conclusion.
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